By Eron Henry
Data science is revealing facts previously unknown. The field is upending longstanding assumptions. It is remaking or challenging old fields and creating new ones. It is unclear how much across the board this is as it is a developing area of expertise, and one of the fastest growing professions.
At the heart of data science is data. Mounds and mounds of data. The source of the most important data is the Internet. Search engines such as Google and Bing are goldmines of digital data. So are social media sites such as YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and Twitter.
It is easy for the amateur, such as yours truly, to delve into some of these data and extrapolate. While not a data scientist, I’ve learned basic Python, one of the most important computer languages in data science. It is amazing what a few lines of code can reveal. An increasing curiosity of mine is how much Internet data say about Jamaica and Jamaicans, and the extent one can make projections using these Jamaican digital datasets.
The following is not scientific, and it is clearly not presented as such. But I do it partly out of curiosity, and partly to test if Internet activity is as predictive for Jamaica as it does for the United States and other large societies.
With general elections due in Jamaica by February of next year, I decided to look at the Internet activities surrounding the two major political parties. In the middle of June 2020, I looked at results for the last 12 months, 90 days and 30 days.
Several things to bear in mind. One data point does not give the entire picture and thus cannot tell the whole story. Persons, for instance, use different search terms to mean the same thing. Sometimes too, an event or story may drive Internet traffic in favor of one thing over another for a comparatively short period and is not reflective of a general trend. Some things are difficult to measure, such as emotions and sentiments, all important in determining political preference. And data scientists in the United States are becoming increasingly aware that a better measure to predict political fortunes are registered voters who express an intention to vote, and for whom.
That said, the results of Internet traffic concerning the two political parties in Jamaica is quite revealing.
PNP advantage?
In terms of Google search, this is where the Peoples National Party and the Jamaica Labour Party stood, parish by parish, as of the middle of June 2020, over the last 12 months. St. Thomas, PNP 75 percent, JLP 25 percent; St. Andrew, 71 percent PNP, 29 percent JLP; St. Catherine, 60 percent PNP, 40 percent JLP; Clarendon, 80 percent PNP, 20 percent JLP; Manchester, 74 percent PNP, 26 percent JLP; St. Elizabeth, 53 percent PNP, 47 percent JLP; Westmoreland, 82 percent PNP, 18 percent JLP; Hanover, 70 percent PNP, 30 percent JLP; St. James, 69 percent PNP, 31 percent JLP; Trelawy, 50 percent PNP, 50 percent JLP; St. Ann, 63 percent PNP, 37 percent JLP; St. Mary, 64 percent PNP, 36 percent JLP; Portland, 50 percent PNP, 50 percent JLP.
Such overwhelming search of the PNP relative to the JLP was a major surprise. If Google searches are to be believed, the PNP would be beating the JLP street and lane the last 12 months. It could also mean that negative news concerning the PNP drove search traffic. In case of the latter, as an example, Peter Bunting challenged PNP President Peter Phillips for party leadership. While not unheard of, seeking to unseat an incumbent party leader is a major, major event in Jamaican politics.
The opposite could be true as well. Was the overwhelming advantage in Google search for the PNP related to negative sentiments and thus a turn away from the governing JLP? One Jamaica Observer article on June 25, 2019, ran a headline in big bold letters, Bloody June, with the tagline, “2019 crime gains erased as murders go up by almost 50 per cent so far this month.” The crime rate continues to be high. Did the public turn against the ruling JLP because of soaring criminality?
According to the Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions, poverty among Jamaicans worsened in June 2019, up to 19.3 percent of the population, increasing by more than 2 percent over the previous measurement in June 2017.
Did these and other factors, such as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, sour sentiments toward the JLP government?
The overwhelming PNP lead in Internet search remained much the same over the last 90 days, with a few notable changes. The biggest change was in St. Ann, where the JLP enjoyed a 72 percent search advantage to the PNP 28 percent. This was near opposite to the 12 months period. Was it related to the death of Shahine Robinson, the popular Member of Parliament of Northeast St. Ann and the Minister of Labour and Social Security? Search for her name spiked on May 29, the day of hear death, and continued to trend through to May 31. In other major changes, the PNP enjoyed a 100 percent search advantage in Hanover and Manchester.
Search statistics for the last 30 days were not enough to be reflected in all parishes, but in those that did, the JLP fared way better. The party led St. Ann 67 percent to 33 percent; St. James 66 percent to 34 percent; and had 100 percent search lead in Portland. The PNP led in four parishes. Westmoreland and Manchester, at 100 percent each; a 60 percent to 40 percent advantage in St. Andrew; and 62 percent to 38 percent lead in St. Catherine. No statistics for the other parishes.
2016 comparison
To test whether Google Internet search mirrors political sentiments in Jamaica, I went back to the last general elections held February 25, 2016. It was a close result, with the JLP winning 32 of the 63 seats and the PNP 31.
There were ups and downs for both parties. Both parties stood even on January 26, a month out from the polls. The JLP surged ahead on January 29. It got even on January 30. The PNP surged up ahead on January 31 to February 1 and it got even again on February 2. This seesaw battle in Internet search continued throughout much of February with both parties exchanging leads or evening out on different days.
But a few days showed major change from the rest. On February 8, the JLP surged way ahead of the PNP, a huge one-day spike up to 73 points to the PNP’s 20 points, before dropping to even on February 9. The PNP took a significant lead on February 16 with the JLP dropping to one of its lowest scores of nine points for the month on that day. Then the JLP started a climb on February 17, which continued right through to election day.
Both parties were even on February 18 but the PNP dipped discernibly until February 20. It started a climb on February 21, but it was more modest than that of the JLP, which continued its steady climb. Both parties stood equal on February 23 and the PNP surged slightly ahead, 66 to 51 points, on February 24. But the JLP had a huge surge on election day to 100 points, an increase of 49 points over the previous day, whereas the PNP had a small surge of five points, up to 71.
Do these tell a tale? Can Google search portend Jamaican election results?
The closeness of the search, the seesaw change in Internet search leads, reflect how close the 2016 election was. And the last day spike shows a definite trend to the JLP. Comparing 2016 and 2020 suggests Internet search reflects political sentiment, if not voter intention.
What all this means is unclear. But based on recent Internet search activity, I’d be concerned if I were the JLP.
These are the kinds of results that intrigue data scientists and lead them to explore if Internet activity has predictive value.
Eron Henry is an ordained minister, public speaker, writer, editor and traveler. He is principal of the communications consultancy, Eron Henry & Associates. His novel, Reverend Mother, is available on Amazon. He can be reached at eronhenry2@gmail.com
Data science + AI is like the man who picks his neighbor’s apples that hang over his fence then boasts about his astonishing achievements. its easy pickings.